Market update - 11th July '17

So when I came away to LA I had the choice of bringing what I needed to trade with me or leaving everything and essentially being dark for two weeks.

I chose the latter for two reasons:

  1. I wanted a holiday and a break, if I hadn't I would have been trading like crazy.
  2. I wanted to stick to my long-term hold strategy.

Hindsight is a beautiful thing. Before I left I sold a handful of small alts and traded them for Dash, initially a good choice as Dash went up to £171. I should have probably sold a bunch more of my smaller alts.

The pattern I am noticing is in boom / bust times the % movement of coins tends to correlate quite well to the size of a coin. While not scientific, you can see the smaller coins can fly up and down a lot.

My future strategy will take this into consideration, during the boom times I will increase exposure to the smaller alts to gain from the larger appreciations and during the bust times, I will place my investments back into the top 10 coins.

I don't believe the bubble has burst but I do believe we are in a major correction and I don't know when this will end. All I can do is stick to the fundamentals.

I think the drop in the market is down to a combination of the following:

  1. People cashing out profits
  2. ICOs cashing out investments
  3. New traders panic selling
  4. Market manipulators, likely holding short positions forcing prices down
  5. Fear over August 1st

My strategy is as follows. I believe in the tech and as such I believe at a point in the future we will see new all time highs again for major coins such as Bitcoin, Litecoin, Dash, Monero etc. From the next tier and through the smaller alts, some will come back and some won't.

With August the 1st I am optimistic though I do expect the possibility of a crash while trading slows to see what happens. My expectation is we will see some form of coin split. Possibly with a Bitcoin and a Bitcoin Classic. I do not see a five way split happening. Once the coins splits and the dust settles then I expect both coins to see movements upwards and eventually a genuine leader.

This might get ultra messy.