Market update - 25th July '17

Wow! Big drop again today, some 20%...

As ever, nobody knows if something will go up or down. I for sure don't, all we can do is estimate based on a combination of news, technical analysis and gut feel for the market.

Also, things never go up or down in a straight line.

So the drop today, from my perspective could be related to the following:

  1. Natural drop after a good few days on the rise. People make money on volatility so once a resistance point can't be breached the market will drop. What we need to watch are the support lines, if we bounce off these then we will move up again.
  2. Continued uncertainty around Bitcoin. So we may have a lock in for Segwit but we still have August 1st to contend with. There is also an increase in news and posts, especially on Reddit, related to BCC, Bitcoin Cash, which adds to uncertainty.

Specifically with regards to Bitcoin Cash, this is a fork of Bitcoin and to be is no different to any other fork driven by those who are interested in Big Blocks and don't agree with Segwit.

When Bitcoin Cash hits the market, we all own as much Bitcoin Cash as we own Bitcoin. I don't see it achieving much success and will likely be similar to what Ethereum Classic is to Ethereum. There will be some support, it's price movements may correlate with Bitcoin. It's main issue is, there is only really room for one Bitcoin, the majority of miners and hash power will probably support Bitcoin and thus the value of Bitcoin Cash will be too low for miners to care.

I expect when it hits the exchanges that many will sell off their Bitcoin Cash to buy more Bitcoin, as such the selling pressure will drive the price down and the price of Bitcoin up.

Anyway, this is just my view, I could be entirely wrong.