I'm on holiday :)
Hi everyone, I'm currently away in LA for a couple of weeks. I'm using this as a time to relax, check prices less and avoid trading.
The primary thing on my mind at the moment is the upcoming Bitcoin scaling attempts. I'll be sharing an article about this at the bottom of this post, please do take the time to read. It's hard to follow it all, but in summary, there are multiple attempts to change the Bitcoin source code, the primary ones being Segwit2x and BIP148.
There is a worse case scenario where we end up with the chain splitting multiple times, meaning up to five different Bitcoins. If you do not know what this means, the core code of any coin can be changed, if a significant % of miners stick with a different version then it essentially splits off, you can see this with Ethereum and Ethereum Classic both existing. This is unlikely as some of the splits will likely die off, there is though a good potential of two different Bitcoins existing.
It really is hard to predict what will happen. I expect prices will fall at first, causing a ripple effect through the altcoin markets. If Segwit activates successfully then I would expect a huge price rally, which will also likely put downward pressure on altcoins as people support Bitcoin.
My strategy is as follows
- Bitcoin, do nothing! The price might fall, the price might rally, no idea. I do though believe Segwit will activate one way or another and thus long term prices will go up. I excited Bitcoin a few weeks back but it's now around 10% of my portfolio.
- Litecoin, Dash and Monero hedging. I've been in these coins for a long time but have been increasing my position over the last few weeks as a hedge against Bitcoin. Monero has remained pretty stable but both Dash and Litecoin have been growing. If you don't know or own Dash please do check them out, the structure of mining rewards supports the growth of the coin.
- Altcoin reduction. I am going to start rescuing my position in smaller altcoins. I think some of these will struggle either way as focus will be on the major coins. There are some stable ones I'll keep but my punts will be reduced. I'll be sharing a list of these soon.
Other things on my mind:
- Ethereum, I've been considering coming out of this entirely. There is too much downward sales pressure from the ICOs. No decision yet and the probable outcome is reducing my position.
- Ripple, I am out for the long term now. Still way too many concerns over this coin.
Any questions then please give me a shout.