DCU - Choppy Market (15th Aug '17)

Hi there, a shorter update today as I have taken the boy on a road trip to Puerto Banus and I am writing this from my phone.

One of the benefits of trading full time, not just crypto, but any asset, is the ability to choose your working hours. The right strategy can save you from being tied to the markets on an hour by hour basis and free yourself up to use your time as you choose.

 Conor checking out the yachts. 

Conor checking out the yachts. 

I have been expecting a market dip for a few days. My personal portfolio has had its biggest run of 24 hour gains, 10 days of green. Markets never move up in straight lines but for the last 10 days my portfolio has.

The signs of a dip were there yesterday. Bitcoin has been making massive gains since we survived the Aug 1st hard fork and the run had to end at some point. Yesterday the markets were super choppy with multi £thousand bounes every few minutes. The market was also generally down with a few big pumps like Ark keeping my portfolio up.

The choppy moves have continued today, Bitcoin has dropped -5% to $4,148, at the time of writing as we appear to have run out of steam. I don't expect any significant drop and with any luck Bitcoin will trade sideways for a while now and let the altcoins have a turn.

Siacoin has made a jump today, +20% after a slow bleed. Quite a few people have been considering exiting their investment as it appears, alongside other older coins, to have lost its momentum. I myself had also been considering my position.

This for me is the perfect example of why I do two things:

  1. Have a diverse portfolio
  2. Exercise patience

The more diverse your portfolio the more you are able to weather the storms. During dip days you still might hold a couple of gems which are pumping. This can save the day when everything looks bleak. With Crypto markets so volatile, a smaller portfolio can perform much worse than the market and Blockfolio might mislead you, triggering panics and emotional decisions.

I was emailed yesterday asking whether it is the time to come out of Siacoin. I never tell people when to buy or sell. My advice though was to look at the long term charts. You can draw a line on the chart across the dips and you can see the long term trend is still positive. It is just down from the huge spike during May. If you bought in June then it may feel like a disaster but most buys in June look shit as the whole market was in a bubble and you had just bought before a correction. This is just an example of buying at the wrong time. Similar, buying some coins right now may prove wrong in the short term as the market is bubbly again.

Siacoin is still a solid investment and a solid project. The team has been vocal about trying to maintain a stable price, something which may concern those chasing massive returns. The reality is that we are in a free market and this may be out of their control.

If Siacoin achieves their goal of a functioning decentralised cloud storage solution then the value will go up. This is why patience is important. It is Sod's law that at a time you choose to exit it will likely be just before a rally.

If you are selling Siacoin because you are down, you likely invested at the wrong time. If you are selling Siacoin because you want to invest in something else then it is likely you are either chasing or your portfolio is not diverse enough.

Siacoin is a good long term investment.

Across the rest of the market:

  • Ark shot up yesterday without any news to support. This is likely a pump in a down market. I'll be honest, I bought Ark as a punt ages ago and I still have no idea what it does.
  • Verge is up, one of my fav long term investments.

There are a bunch of altcoins down: Swarm City, NEO, Lomocoin, BAT, Matchpool etc. These are all coins which shot up this week so I am not worried.

Today is a day for patience and to ignore the market. Let it correct and shake out a few amateur panic investors. The short term trend is good, corrections are healthy but beware a June/July style correction is also coming.


Road trip with the boy.