Daily crypto update - new global ATH (7th Aug '17)

The market rally has continued through the last 24 hours, and we have just hit a new global crypto market cap all time high. We hit it while I was writing this post, so I now have to edit. Funny. 

On June 20th we hit a global market cap all time high of $116.4bn, and as of right now we are at $116.7bn. So what does this mean? As ever, my advice is always the same, always trade with caution, don't be greedy and do not get caught up in the euphoria and make bad decisions. For example this morning I sold half of my Antshares/NEO, you can read about why here?

So what will happen now? One of three things:

  • An accelerated rally might trigger
  • A sell off might trigger
  • We may trade sideways

Yes, I am saying anything can happen. This is an important point which I will make over and over and over - nobody knows where any price is going and anything can happen. It is such an important mindset to have so you concentrate on your strategy rather than being caught up in market movements. Euphoria can lead to bad decisions.

Only this morning I have received two emails asking if now is a good time to buy Antshares. I never tell people what to do; I am just not buying Antshares now as it isn't a good entry point. This doesn't mean some people won't enter now and make money; it just isn't an entry point for me.

So what do I think will happen? I think we are heading for new highs. Now the Bitcoin scaling drama is mainly over, apart from the two Reddit camps continuing to fight, I expect the price of Bitcoin to continue rising and get close to $5k this year. These new all time high prices are important as they create newsworthy content, this content increasingly reaches the mainstream press, and this brings new people into the ecosystem.

Crypto is still small, and I think we are all still early adopters. There are still naysayers who don't believe in crypto, who think Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme, who say Bitcoin has no value and so on. They may be proved right one day. I just don't think they will. Those who understand the monetary value and the benefits of Bitcoin know where we are heading. We are creating a global currency, free from government interference and control. 

Bitcoin allows the unbanked of the world to send and receive something of value on their phone. Just look at Venezuela, the country is in meltdown, and the currency is experiencing rampant inflation. Those who live in Venezuela and bought Bitcoin have to an extent protected their money.

While a crash like 2013 is always possible, I just don't think this will happen as we are in a different place from 2013:

  • We have a much better infrastructure
  • The blockchain is now being used for business applications
  • Institutional investment is on the increase

The world is waking up to Bitcoin, and I am cautiously optimistic.

As I mentioned yesterday, as we appear to be out of the correction, most coins which fell, over the last six weeks appear to have bottomed out, and many are back making good gains. My approach is to wait out the next couple of weeks and watch the market closely, only reacting to significant moves, like with Antshares/NEO earlier.

Specifically, I am watching the following closely:

  • Tier 1 (read about my investment tiers here):
    • Bitcoin: will it hold above $3k and continue to grow?
    • Bitcoin Cash: where its market price settles at?
    • Dash: when will it make its next move?
    • Ethereum: will it get back to +$400?
    • Litecoin: what happens now Bitcoin has broken out?
    • Monero: will it achieve a price I feel it deserves?
    • Antshares/NEO: where is the top of the current move?
    • Iconomi: when will it break out of its sideways move?
  • Others:
    • BAT: will it get back to its all time high?
    • Factom: a secret fav of mine, where will it go?
    • Waves: how far can this go? 
    • Wings: same as Waves, how far can it go?
    • Blocknet: will the price stabilise? 

As ever there is a lot to think about, this is the downside of a large and diverse portfolio, one which I will consolidate further over the coming weeks.

So, as I have said, I am sitting on the sidelines, waiting for this market rally to show where we are heading and reacting to only very specific market movements. Once I have a better picture of where we are I will continue to rebalance my portfolio, sell off any coins I am over and look for any interesting new investment punts.

Remember, anything can happen, these are just my thoughts based on my experience. If you review my post history you will see I have been right and I have been wrong.

Any questions, then please ask.