DCU - Unsteady Crypto Market (5th Sep '17)
Market Performance (Global Market Cap):
- 24-hour gains: -7.9%
- September gains: -12.9%
- Year to date gains: +753.7%
- 24-hour gains: -5.2%
- September gains: -8.3%
- Year to date gains: +1,407.1%
The market is feeling unsteady at the moment. After many coins were sold off in two waves this week, triggered firstly by $5k Bitcoin profit taking and then China announcing they have banned ICOs, the Global Market Cap bounced back from a low of $134.8bn to $152.9bn.
The tiers within my portfolio have shown quite distinct differences in performance. My top tier of stable coins has dropped -1.4% while tiers 2 and 3 have risen by +5.8% and +6.2% respectively. There isn't any real underlying reason for this other than when the market drops; the smaller altcoins tend to fall the most, so as the market has rebounded, they have also rebounded back more though some coins are rallying, particularly Komodo and Syscoin.
Still, I have an unsteady feeling as my top tier coins are not recovering at a consistent rate and the bounce feels like it is running out of steam. I have been tracking behind my money off the table, 5 for 25% and as such sold off a few assets today. While the market may recover over the next few days, I felt it would be best to sell off some good performing coins and bank some money. I also closed out a crappy trade I made without any real research into Monacoin.
- Dash: 25% of position for a profit of +176.4%
- Komodo: 30% of my position for a profit of +142.4%
- Syscoin: 30% of my position for a profit of +283.8%
- Monacoin: 100% of my position for a loss of -41.6%
The first three are all significant positions and as such an easier place to take profits from, where as the trade in Monacoin was quite small. I am now tracking my money off the table position at 18.6% so I will need to sell out some more positions this week.
It feels like we need Bitcoin to start driving back towards and hold above $5k for the rally to continue. While it defended the $4k marker, it did find resistance at just under $4.5k. If it can't hold and tests $4k again we could lose support and this may trigger further drops across the market.
I am nervous that many altcoins are overpriced and will continue to watch the market carefully. If a wider selloff does trigger, I will start selling more assets and moving more into my stable tier 1 coins. This will be a day by day watch and act strategy. If we enter a correction like June/July, I want to put in place those actions which would have helped my portfolio perform better during that time but also be in a good position to reinvest during any recovery.
I expect we are going to have to wait a few days to let the market settle and see where we go next. I think the ICO news will continue to impact individual tokens; Coin Telegraph reported that up to 60 ICOs are currently in limbo. As I mentioned in my vlog yesterday, I think this is a good thing, too many ICOs are coming to market, they are hard to keep track of and are diverting attention away from other established high-quality projects.
NEO continues to suffer from the news regarding China banning ICOs, while it has bounced back from a low of $18.46 to $22.82, it is way down from August 15th where it hit $50.10, a drop of -54.5%. The team released a press release to reassure investors, but it may fall further before recovering. I am watching as I still hold a position and would still reinvest. I believe NEO is in the best position to work with Chinese regulations.
After the Bitcoin $5k retracement I wanted to wait a few days to see how the market reacts but with the additional Chinese ICO news I am going to ride out another couple of days to see what happens.